We've been seeing a lot of
news reports lately that the governor thinks he can pass a massive $3 billion
road and school construction plan this year. But Senate Republican Leader Frank
Watson is throwing some cold water on an article that jump-started much of this
speculation.
The article suggested that
a deal may be nearing on the $3 billion program. Watson was quoted as saying he
could support funding it with a $175 million "windfall" from
increased gasoline sale tax revenues as well as a tax hike on cigarettes.
But a spokesman for the
Senate GOP Leader played down the comments. "He didn't say anything
new," said Patty Schuh in an e-mail. "We've always been for [a
capital program] but it's got to be done right."
Schuh also said that
Watson's support for using the gasoline sales tax revenues is not new and noted
that Watson said he'd look at increasing the cigarette tax last year. Senate
President Emil Jones blocked that particular idea, and he hasn't indicated that
he's changed his mind, which creates a big roadblock for Watson's idea (Jones,
a smoker, just underwent angioplasty surgery, so it's possible that he might
look at things differently in the near future).
Rumors have circulated
about a possible capital deal for months. Last May, Governor Blagojevich
privately suggested holding a special legislative session to force the issue,
but that plan was rejected by the two Democratic leaders, Emil Jones and House
Speaker Michael Madigan. Then, about September, more rumors flew about a
possible special session, but those turned out to be false. Every few weeks
since then, the rumor mill has sparked up with capital program talk, including
in the days before the fall veto session. All have been wrong.
The problem for Governor
Blagojevich is that new borrowing requires a three-fifths majority in both
legislative chambers. He can't pass anything without Republican support, and,
for various reasons, they haven't been cooperating.
Senate President Jones and
House Speaker Madigan, both Democrats, have already signed off on a capital
projects deal, but there is resistance to Watson's idea of using the increased
sales tax revenue to pay for it. The Legislature's revenue forecasting arm has
pointed out that the increased consumer spending on gasoline could very well be
offset by less spending on other things, which would offset the increased
gasoline sales tax receipts. In other words, there's only so much money out
there at any given time.
The political game is
pretty obvious. Watson is under pressure from some Republicans to prevent
Governor Blagojevich from winning any big new spending program before this
year's election. "Starving" an administrator's budget is a tried and
true political strategy and the Republicans have tried to use it against
Blagojevich whenever they could for the past couple of years.
The Senate Republicans
have said they wouldn't back a new bonding program unless they received solid
assurances that they wouldn't be cut out of the deal. The governor has a
history of not keeping his word in Springfield, so they want a projects list
and a solemn vow in advance.
If the governor agrees to
a list of projects and the program passes, he'll be able to visit those
construction sites throughout the campaign season. That "victory lap"
would allow Blagojevich to rebut Republican claims that he is a woefully
ineffective governor who can't get things done. If the program doesn't pass,
Blagojevich and the Democrats could use that list against Senate Republican
candidates and incumbents.
Good sources say that
Watson is under increasing pressure from road builders and other natural GOP
constituents to support a capital plan. And at least some of his own members
are feeling the same heat, plus pressure from local constituents who want the
jobs and benefits from road, bridge and school construction projects.
Watson worked hard last
year to pry the construction trade unions away from the Democrats after Senate
President Jones tried to strip away their control of apprenticeship programs
and shift it to the state. If Watson continues to be seen as blocking a capital
projects bill, however, his move on the unions could be jeopardized.
Whatever happens, Watson
doesn't want to publicly look responsible for killing a $3 billion projects
plan. Whether he'll go the extra mile to get it passed is still unknown. The
governor's people appear to believe they can convince Watson to come on board
and are starting to gin up media reports that a deal is percolating. Stay
tuned.
-30-
Rich Miller also publishes
Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be reached at
thecapitolfaxblog.com.