From:
CAPITOLFAX@aol.com
Subject:
RICH MILLER'S WEEKLY NEWSPAPER COLUMN
To:
undisclosed-recipients:;
"It's
been anticlimactic," sighed a top House Democratic operative last week
when asked about some of the Chicago-area primary races.
For months,
House Speaker Michael Madigan's operation was expecting an onslaught from Gov.
Rod Blagojevich and his allies against a handful of their Chicago
incumbents. Madigan advised his
incumbents to take leaves of absence from their day jobs, walk precincts like
never before and raise and spend money like their lives depended on it. The speaker placed staff all over the
city and parts of the suburbs, and ran the full program for his people.
At least
two Democratic challengers have told others in recent days that they felt
abandoned by the governor. They
were recruited into the race with grandiose promises of money and staff, and
ended up holding an empty bag.
* Sharon
Latiker, of the city's South Side, works for the administration and ran against
House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie two years ago. She was mostly on her own last time
around, but was reportedly promised bigtime help by the administration if she
ran again, but that help never came.
Latiker, as a result, has been a no-show on the campaign trail. She's done almost nothing and hasn't
reported raising a dime.
* Toni
Ashmore had been considered a potentially dangerous opponent for appointed
freshman Rep. Al Riley (D-Olympia Fields). An attractive candidate who holds office in the region and
is married to a high-level administration official, she had all the signs of
trouble for Madigan's operation.
Ashmore put up a billboard on the Dan Ryan Expressway early in the
campaign, which some predicted would be the first of many campaign
expenditures.
Ashmore did
do a little campaigning and the House Democrats were forced to spend money to
make sure she didn't move up in the polling. But a bit over a week before the primary she told a
political consultant that she was still trying to learn about fundraising and
direct mail. After raising just
$4,600 last year, she reported no fundraising at all in January. Riley, meanwhile, got a steady stream
of cash and services from Madigan and various interest groups and lobbyists.
* Perhaps
the most vigorous campaign from the list of expected Blagojevich-backed
challengers was Stanley Moore's race against Rep. Monique Davis
(D-Chicago). But Moore, a former
member of Senate Democratic staff, deserves much of the credit. He was also helped by Sen. Donne
Trotter (D-Chicago), his old boss on staff. Some other races that were once considered seriously in play
- like Rep. Art Turner's primary on Chicago's West Side - only showed signs of
life because of help from Senators like Rickey Hendon.
So, what
happened? Why didn't Blagojevich
pull the trigger on Madigan's members?
Perhaps the
governor realized that launching an all-out assault on well-prepared incumbents
was doomed to fail and would further damage any efforts to split Madigan's
caucus in his favor. The decision
by the Service Employees International Union to stay out of almost all of the
primaries was obviously a huge blow to the governor, who has counted on the
union's giant bank account over the years. Without that union's money and ground troops, the governor
would not have any deniability when the media came calling and wouldn't be able
to field a credible street-level fight.
A whole lot
of House Democrats, however, point to the governor's fundraising report for
evidence of why he stayed out of the race.
Blagojevich
spent over a million dollars on legal bills last year alone (and that's just
what we know about), so quite a few Democrats believe the governor is hoarding
his campaign fund resources for himself.
If the US Attorney successfully prosecutes Tony Rezko, the investigation
will almost assuredly move up the ladder.
Even the relatively staid Charlie Wheeler at Illinois Issues magazine
wrote this month that the governor's indictment "seems a
certainty." Spending or
diverting several hundred thousand dollars to House primaries of doubtful
winnability would be foolish in that environment.
Then
there's his poll numbers, which are awful. Madigan would surely attach any of those candidates directly
to the unpopular Blagojevich, so challenging the incumbents probably would've
been money down the drain.
And maybe,
just maybe, the governor realized that a full-blown war with Madigan would
destroy any chance he had left of accomplishing anything this year. We can only hope.
-30-
Rich Miller
also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.
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