A new
statewide poll confirms what most of knew anyway. If Barack Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee, he
will do a whole lot better in Illinois against Republican John McCain than will
Hillary Clinton. But there's more
to it than that.
The SurveyUSA
poll of 600 Illinois registered voters was released last week. It found Obama
trouncing McCain in a hypothetical matchup 60-31. Clinton, on the other hand, leads McCain by a far smaller
margin and is held under 50 percent, 48-37.
The poll,
conducted February 29th, found Sen. Obama has big leads with both men and
women, while McCain would beat Hillary Clinton by ten points among men
(48-38). And Obama stomps McCain
with independent voters 60-29, while Clinton has a slight lead, 39-36.
In fact, according
to the new poll, Obama wins every demographic except Republicans and
conservatives, but his margins there are narrower than are Clinton's.
Obama even
wins the suburban collar counties against McCain by twenty points, 57-37, and
he holds a 52-32 lead among Downstate voters. Clinton trails McCain in the suburbs 47-34, but does lead
Downstate, 49-42. Obama's margin
in suburban Cook County, which will be the location of several state
legislative showdowns this November, is far higher than Clinton's. Obama is up 60-32, while Clinton leads
51-32.
The numbers
clearly show why Illinois Republicans are so nervous that Obama might pull off
a nomination win. McCain isn't
doing particularly spectacular against either candidate, but the national
Republican Party is likely to spend some money in Illinois if Clinton is the
nominee. They'll likely abandon
the state if Obama is at the top of the ticket, which could cost Republicans
about a million dollars in national cash and could lead to some serious legislative
blowouts in unexpected places.
One top
legislative Republican speculated last week that an Obama presidential campaign
could cost the Illinois Senate Republicans at least two additional seats this
fall. The House Republicans, who
faced little opposition from the Democrats in 2006, would likely lose more.
Republican
congressional candidate Jim Oberweis' convincing loss in a suburban special
election earlier this month also proves that in this environment Republicans at
the state legislative level - where name recognition is lower than the US House
- need to have strong candidates, and they need to work them hard and pray four
or five times a day that Obama doesn't win the nomination and then cut ads for
their Democratic opponents.
Oberweis
was a disaster on just about every level, and few down-ballot Republicans are
nearly that bad. But the Republicans need to recognize that
every Republican in that district could be in danger come November when
Oberweis runs again for the seat.
Oberweis' November candidacy might very well pull down some of their
down-ballot candidates. Add that
to any Obama effect, and the Republicans have to be tearing their hair out
right now.
Which leads
us to this story.
Sen. Kirk
Dillard (R-Hinsdale) said last week that he is seriously considering resigning
his unpaid leadership post with the Senate Republicans because he was
"clearly misled" by Senate GOP Leader Frank Watson.
Dillard
claims Watson promised to appoint him to recently retired state Sen. Todd
Sieben's assistant minority leader slot.
But that
didn't happen. After Sieben
retired, Sen. Dale Righter was appointed to the paid position. Righter, who has been serving as a sort
of de facto floor leader for leadership during debates, had been the Senate
Republicans' caucus chair, which is also an unpaid leadership job. Sen. Dale Risinger was then given
Righter's old spot.
Dillard
said he would use the current two-week spring break to decide whether he will
continue as minority whip or step down from leadership altogether, "since
I believe I was misled."
Dillard
lost an election for the top Senate Republican Leadership job to Watson after
Senate President Pate Philip decided not to continue leading the caucus when
the Democrats took control of the chamber in 2003. Relations have since been somewhat tense between Dillard and
Watson, and weren't helped much when Dillard appeared in a TV ad for Barack
Obama's presidential campaign.
With the
Obama polling and Oberweis' candidacy problems, the last thing the Republicans
need right now is another round of divisiveness. But that may be just what they get. The infamous Illinois Republican
circular firing squad never seems to miss its target.
-30-
Rich Miller
also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.