She’d give him a real run for his money.

Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka has a new poll that shows her trailing Governor Rod Blagojevich by just three points in a head-to-head matchup.

Using just about any test, the numbers are real. I was given access to all the poll’s results, and the internal numbers tracked with several other recent surveys. The poll was conducted by American Viewpoint, a respected Washington, DC-based firm. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent and was taken March 6-8.

According to the poll, Topinka trails Blagojevich 45 percent to 42 percent. Her greatest weaknesses are with women over 60, who favor the governor 58-28, and in the Cook County suburbs, which she needs to win but where she trails the governor 55-34. Except for Chicago, Topinka leads Blagojevich in every other region of the state.

Most surprising, perhaps, are the governor’s generic "re-elect" numbers. When asked whether Blagojevich has "performed his job as governor well enough to deserve re-election," just 40 percent said he did. And of those, a mere 18 percent said he "definitely" deserved another term.

Of the whopping 47 percent who said "it’s time to give a new person a chance," A very high 31 percent said it was "definitely" time for a new face.

Incumbents have come back from worse numbers. Ronald Reagan’s midterm polls were so bad in 1983 that there was talk of nominating a different Republican in ‘84. But these new results aren’t good by any stretch of the imagination.

The governor campaigned for a year and a half, spent $24 million and has spent the past two years issuing one press release after another, but people have yet to really warm up to him. Only 14 percent "strongly approve" of his job performance, while 33 percent "somewhat approve." That’s weaker than President Bush’s approval results, even though Bush lost Illinois to John Kerry.

According to the poll, 45 percent of respondents disapprove of the guv’s job performance, with 23 percent strongly disapproving and 22 percent somewhat disapproving. That’s a bit better than Bush’s disapproval (48 percent), but not by much. In southern Illinois, a total of 61 percent disapprove of the way Blagojevich does his job.

Only 40 percent of the state’s voters believe Illinois is heading in the right direction, while 48 percent said it’s on the wrong track. That kind of number is never good news for an incumbent, but, remember, it’s still very early in the game and the governor has a gigantic campaign war chest.

The governor is expected to spend as much as $25 million on his re-election campaign next year. That money will give him ample opportunity to run a Reagan-style "Morning in America" media blitz that constantly reminds voters that he kept his promise not to raise general taxes.

The poll didn’t find a definitive "knockout punch" against Blagojevich. 44 percent said they’d be less likely to vote for the governor after being told of his latest fundraising scandals. 41 percent said they’d be less likely to vote for him when informed that four separate investigations are being conducted into alleged ethical misconduct by members of his administration. The same number, 41 percent, said they’d be less likely to vote for him because fellow Democrats like Comptroller Dan Hynes and Secretary of State Jesse White question his ability to govern and say he’s not a man of his word.

None of those results are considered high enough to make a huge difference in a re-election campaign. But the Republicans believe that Blagojevich is suffering a political death of a thousand cuts. It won’t be individual issues, but a totality of problems that could sink his chances.

Democrats point out that Topinka won’t be able to run as a "change agent" because of her long tenure in Springfield and her past association with disgraced former governor George Ryan. But it’s highly doubtful that Topinka will portray herself as an agent of radical change.

Blagojevich is an overly confrontational, often juvenile governor who can’t talk without a tight script and appears too small for the office. If Topinka runs as the plain spoken, grownup choice, she has a shot at winning.

Topinka still has a ways to go, but she is starting from a good position and, next to former governor Jim Edgar, she is clearly the strongest Republican to take on Rod Blagojevich in 2006. The party ought to get behind her.

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