Everybody at the Illinois Statehouse always says
they're for a major, multibillion-dollar public works construction plan. The
problem has been that they could never agree on how to spend the money and how
to pay for the massive beast.
House Speaker Michael Madigan has taken the blame
for the failure of the "capital plan" during the past couple of
years, and rightly so. He used every trick in the book to block it.
Then again, if Madigan hadn't killed Rod
Blagojevich's extremely loosely written capital bills, Blagojevich would've
probably tried to steal every last dime. To say that there were billions of
dollars in almost completely undefined spending would not be an exaggeration.
With Blagojevich gone, everybody now wants to know
where Madigan is on capital. And, as usual, nobody really knows what he's
thinking. But lots of folks believe the tea leaves look ominous. Things just
aren't going well.
The governor hasn't yet started really working
legislators on behalf of his tax hike proposals. Madigan has said that passing
a budget and closing the $11-12 billion deficit is his first priority, and
Quinn won't back away from his income tax increase. Most legislators have never
taken a truly tough vote, and hiking the income tax rate by 50 percent certainly
qualifies as truly tough. The longer the tax hike is up in the air, the longer
the capital plan could be delayed.
House Republican Leader Tom Cross has refused to
support any tax or fee hikes to fund the capital bill. Instead he's pushing a
plan derided by Madigan to vastly expand gaming during the worst gaming
recession since time began.
Leader Cross and Speaker Madigan have been feuding
all year, and Cross has upped the ante lately by publicly embarrassing Madigan
almost every day on the House floor with one loudly debated motion after
another to move hot-button but obviously dead bills out of committees. The
Republicans always lose the procedural votes and then they immediately blast
negative robocalls into targeted Democratic districts deriding politically
vulnerable Democratic incumbents for voting against Mom and Apple Pie.
Things are getting awful testy in that chamber.
Using the recent past as a guide, Madigan might be
expected to just jam through a no-tax doomsday budget, forget a capital plan altogether
and adjourn. That's essentially what he did last year.
If Madigan did that again this year the result would
likely be catastrophic. But perhaps a catastrophe might have to occur to wake
everybody up to how serious this situation really is. Voters might be more open
to a tax hike if they saw their state and local governments collapse.
There is another historical model, however: The
"old" Mike Madigan. Back in 1983, the state's economic situation
seemed hopeless, the state deficit was out of control and Republican Gov. Jim
Thompson was begging for tax hikes. Madigan eventually relented and passed a
temporary income tax hike and a one cent sales tax increase.
Nobody can really take the chance that "Old
Madigan" will return, even if his daughter Lisa Madigan is leading Pat
Quinn in all the polls. A recent Public Policy Polling survey of likely
Democratic primary voters had Attorney General Madigan leading Gov. Quinn
45-29. A March poll of just Chicago Democrats had Madigan ahead of Quinn by a
similar margin.
So, in a desperate bid to stop the unthinkable, a
large group of unions and construction industry groups have plunked down a
million dollars to run a TV ad during the month of May. The ad, which will air
all over the state, lays out the case for a capital plan and urges people to
call their legislators.
They wouldn't bother spending that kind of money if
they thought the capital plan was a sure thing and had complete confidence in
Madigan. And, yes, it is more than a little ironic that unions have to help
ante up a million dollars in advertising to pressure a Democratic legislative
leader to enact a major public works bill during the worst economic contraction
since the 1930s. To say that Madigan has too much power would be the greatest
understatement of the century.
The ad itself isn't exactly stunning, but that's
probably not the point. Showing Madigan, Cross and everyone else that they're
willing to spend serious cash to back up their words is what will get the
attention. Money always talks.
-30-
Rich Miller
also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.