G-Rod flip-flops by the
polls
If you're wondering why Governor Rod Blagojevich would
flip-flop on his solemn vow to reform the state's massively underfunded pension
systems, you don't have to look much farther than the most recent poll.
A survey of 1000 registered Illinois voters taken a week
ago Thursday showed Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka leading
Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich by almost ten percentage points.
The automated poll, paid for by the Topinka campaign,
showed Topinka ahead of Blagojevich 45.8 to 36.4, with 18 percent undecided.
The survey had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
The poll tracked with two recent surveys taken by the Chicago
Tribune and SurveyUSA when it found that the governor's job approval rating was
34 percent, while his disapproval was 53 percent. Both the Trib and SurveyUSA
had the guv's approval in the mid-30s, while SurveyUSA's disapproval was very
close to Topinka's answer. The Tribune had his disapproval at 44 percent.
SurveyUSA, like Topinka, polled registered voters, while the Tribune questioned
likely voters.
The Topinka survey tracked fairly well with the Tribune
poll by region. For instance, the Trib found that just 28 percent of
downstaters want to see Blagojevich re-elected and 30 percent approved of his
job performance. Topinka's poll found him with a 29.5 re-elect downstate and a
28 percent job approval rating. According to Topinka's poll, the governor led
the treasurer in Chicago 62 to 22, but Topinka led everywhere else: 56 to 23 in
the collar counties, 45 to 38.5 in suburban Cook and 53.5 to 29.5 in downstate.
A governor under siege is a dream come true for people
like House Speaker Michael Madigan. Rod Blagojevich has been a thorn in
Madigan's side for years, and they have traded barbs ever since Blagojevich won
the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Blagojevich has never taken
Madigan's usually sage advice, and this has irritated the Speaker to no end.
But Madigan has been unusually quiet this year. No longer
did he sharply criticize the governor's budget proposals or threaten to kill
the governor's legislative initiatives. He's even gone out of his way to say
nice things about his former adversary.
It wasn't difficult for Madigan, or anyone else for that
matter, to see that the governor was heading for trouble when Blagojevich
picked a nasty public fight with his own father-in-law last December. Constant
missteps and an escalating series of scandals ever since have hammered the
governor's approval ratings. His reelection prospects suddenly appeared
questionable and Madigan knew that the governor would need some friends soon.
Madigan decided last year that the state ought to
restructure its pension payment schedule. The current payments are eating the
budget alive. Skipping a couple of years' worth of payments while adjusting the
payoff schedule seemed like the best way out.
The governor flatly dismissed Madigan's idea last year.
Blagojevich wanted to do things his own way and, as a result, we ended up with
a two-month overtime session that accomplished very little.
This year, the governor drafted a fatally flawed budget
proposal. Much of it was based on drastic benefit reforms for state workers and
teachers. Blagojevich warned of looming bankruptcy if benefits for future
public employees weren't cut. "This is a crisis that we must solve, and
weĠd better solve it now," he said at the time.
Unions representing those state workers and teachers went
a little nuts after the speech and have been pressuring legislators and the
governor ever since. When he was still riding high in the polls, the governor
could ignore complaints from the Democratic Party's natural constituencies. But
when his numbers suddenly tanked, he needed a quick way out of his self-created
mess. If a primary opponent was lured into the race because of those terrible
poll numbers, it's possible that the unions could abandon him next spring, and
that could prove disastrous with Democratic primary voters.
It was too late in the session to come up with an
entirely new budget, so Blagojevich turned to an unlikely ally, Speaker
Madigan. Madigan dusted off his pension holiday plan. Blagojevich could avoid
cutting benefits for union workers, adjourn the session on time and then take a
few weeks to rethink his approach to governing, without the distraction of an
overtime weary Legislature and news media. The governor jumped at the
opportunity.
There's always a reason behind Madigan's master
chess-player behavior. It's why he almost always gets his way. This year has
been no exception.
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Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily
political newsletter. He can be reached at capitolfax.blogspot.com.