Yet another statewide
survey shows big trouble for Governor Rod Blagojevich.
The Glengariff Group's
poll of 600 registered Illinois voters found Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka
leading Blagojevich 33-31. This particular question had a margin of error of
+/-4 percent, so there is a 69 percent probability that the result is not
simply due to sampling error. The poll also asked which way voters were
leaning, and Topinka still led 39-36. The poll was taken June 2-4, after the
legislative session ended and the governor had received his first positive
media coverage in months.
The poll found that 38
percent identified themselves as Democrats, so in both questions, the governor
wasn't even getting all of the Democratic vote. 29 percent said they were
Republicans, 27 percent said they were independents.
The Glengariff Group is
based in Chicago, but has done a lot of work in Michigan. The pollster was
doing a statewide survey for a client, and "I threw a few political
questions onto the survey -- more for my own curiosity than anything,"
explained pollster Richard Czuba in an e-mail last week. Czuba stressed that
the questions were "not commissioned" by any campaign.
The poll also surveyed
Democratic primary voters and discovered that Attorney General Lisa Madigan is
tied with Blagojevich 31-31 with 21 percent undecided. When "leaners"
were factored in, Blagojevich led Madigan 39-38.
This is the first time
that a pollster has released details of a Democratic primary head-to-head, but
the margin of error is so high - 6.5 percent - that the results are not exactly
solid. Madigan is not a likely candidate, despite all the rumors to the
contrary, however. She just had a new baby and is young enough that she can
wait for a relatively clear shot at the Democratic primary.
The survey of Republican
primary voters had an even higher margin of error - 7.4 percent - but it had
Topinka leading the field with 18 percent, or 25 percent if you count those who
said they were leaning towards her. Dairy magnate Jim Oberweis was in second
place at 15 percent (16 percent with leaners), Congressman Ray LaHood was at 9
percent (10 with leaners), state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger was at 3 percent (4
with leaners) and Ron Gidwitz was trailing the pack with 1 percent (1 with
leaners).
The pollster didn't pit
any other GOP candidate against Blagojevich, which has the Topinka campaign a
bit upset. They strongly believe that crossover Democratic voters and
Democrat-leaning independents are the key to winning the general election, and
maintain that the other GOP candidates wouldn't have fared as well in
head-to-head with Blagojevich.
A spokesman for
Rauschenberger had a different take.
"The polls right now
are almost strictly a reflection of name ID, something that tends to even out
over the life of a campaign, at least among principal contenders," wrote
Dan Proft, a Rauschenberger advisor, in an e-mail.
Proft contended that
Topinka, "a 30-year GOP office holder with 75% hard name ID," scoring
just 18 percent in a GOP primary and finding herself in a "statistical
dead heat" with Oberweis, "a guy who has made a name for himself by
stepping all over himself in two statewide runs," is, "not
particularly compelling."
Proft also claimed that
Topinka's strong head-to-head results against Blagojevich are merely a function
of the governor's own lousy numbers.
Proft makes some good
points, but Rauschenberger just ran a statewide race for US Senate last year,
coming in third in the Republican primary. Despite all that effort, to score
just 3 percent in the governor's primary race is far from
"compelling."
But let's take Proft's
side for a moment and look at the governor's numbers by themselves, ignoring
the Topinka results.
The governor scored just
51 percent in Chicago - a Democratic bastion. He should be at 75 percent, at
least. Suburban Cook County, which has trended more and more Democratic for
years, also had bad news. The governor was winning just 37 percent there.
Just 20 percent supported
Blagojevich in the suburban "collar counties," which is a pitiful
result. Only 27 percent backed him in southern Illinois. And a paltry 17
percent of central Illinois residents said they'd vote for the governor.
The governor's campaign
claims he has raised at least $14 million so far for his re-election campaign.
He'll need a lot more to turn these numbers around.
-30-
Rich Miller also
publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be reached at
capitolfax.blogspot.com.