Last week, I told you
about some Republican candidates for governor. WeÕll finish handicapping the
long list of candidates this week.
¥ Sen. Steve
Rauschenberger — Apparently, running a strong third in the US Senate
primary last year has not paid off for Rauschenberger, who is in the low single
digits in every poll taken to date.
Rauschenberger is the
darling of the Òthinking RightÓ but the conservative wing is divided at the
moment and its numbers simply arenÕt large enough in Illinois to accommodate
two or more candidates (Jim Oberweis, Joe Birkett, Bill Brady, and, to some
extent, Ray LaHood being the others).
Rauschenberger was
endorsed by just about every newspaper editorial board in the state during his
US Senate race against Jack Ryan and Jim Oberweis last year, which helped him
overcome a terrible fundraising effort. Rauschenberger claimed in May and then
again last week that his campaign committee will report having $800,000 at the
end of June. ThatÕs not bad, but there are doubters out there who donÕt think
the cash is Òreal.Ó
Still, Statehouse
reporters love Steve Rauschenberger, whom they regard as a budget expert and
cherish as a font of colorful quotes about Illinois leaders. He can probably
expect lots of positive coverage and will most likely use the media quite
frequently in the coming months to paint himself as a reformer. He also might
be able to break out during any upcoming debates. But he first has to get those
numbers up to a place where he can begin to compete.
RauschenbergerÕs
biggest problem last year was money, so if the $800,000 is real, then heÕll go
a long way towards proving he can stay in for the long haul.
¥ Joe Birkett —
The DuPage County StateÕs Attorney just barely lost the attorney generalÕs race
in 2002 to Lisa Madigan, the most politically connected person to ever run for
that office. YouÕd think that would make him a strong contender for any office
he chose to run for in Ô06, but Birkett burned a lot of bridges back then and
has continued to do so ever since.
Birkett is poised to
put at least one negative behind him in the coming weeks when he indicts Brian
Dugan for the murder of Jeanine Nicarico — which, frankly, he should have
done years ago. Dugan confessed to the crime, you will recall, but BirkettÕs
office continued to pursue murder charges against an innocent man.
Birkett has yet to
overcome the lingering questions about what he is doing in this race. Lots of
people suspect that Birkett is running for governor merely to retire the
hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt from his Ô02 campaign. Others think he
is waiting for a brokered deal that gives him another shot at attorney general.
He is also despised by most of the political press for the way his staff
treated reporters in Ô02. So, donÕt expect a lot of help from that quarter.
He has tried so far to
position himself as a corruption fighter and has taken some of the harshest
shots of anyone at Governor Blagojevich. Birkett remains a breakout
possibility, particularly because of his base in vote-rich DuPage County. But
that tough-guy act of his is beyond old and makes him look arrogant. A little
humility, if heÕs even capable of it, would be a good thing.
¥ Sen. Bill Brady
— The Bloomington legislator reminds many people of Rod Blagojevich
— but in a good way. He is relatively young and fresh in votersÕ minds
and he has a burning desire for higher office. Brady is also a nice guy and
people, myself included, tend to like him.
But Blagojevich did
more than just showcase his freshness in 2002. Almost entirely under the radar
screen, Blagojevich put together one of the strongest statewide operations
ever. The campaign was a technological marvel, greased with millions of dollars
and implemented by loads of field workers.
So far, BradyÕs
operation appears tiny in comparison. He says he raised $500,000 in June alone,
and thatÕs a good start. WeÕll see how much of that cash came from other people
at the end of the month, when candidates file their disclosure statements. He
also doesnÕt have an organization, which only amplifies the problem of his
incredibly low name recognition.
Even with that half
million bucks, Brady needs to do a whole lot more to position himself for
contention next year.
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Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be reached at capitolfax.blogspot.com.