Last year,
Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan was able to use his alliance with the
House and Senate Republicans to thwart Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Senate
President Emil Jones at almost every turn.
Whether it
was the budget, or the governor's health insurance expansion, or a multitude of
other issues, Madigan and the Republicans were a solid team throughout the long
overtime session.
This year,
the Republicans have flipped on Madigan, allying with Gov. Blagojevich and
Jones on the $34 billion capital construction package, funded by expanded
casino gambling and by leasing the Illinois Lottery to a private company.
A few weeks
ago, I overheard a conversation between Madigan and Senate Republican Leader
Frank Watson. Sen. Watson had come to the House floor to lobby Madigan, yet
again, on the capital bill, which would dump tons of cash into roads, bridges,
schools and mass transit.
Nothing
doing, Madigan said. "I don't know how anyone could ever trust that
guy," he said of Blagojevich.
Watson and
House Republican Leader Tom Cross continued to stick with Blagojevich despite
Madigan's argument that the governor will eventually double-cross them.
Right now,
the only powerful political ally that Madigan has left is Chicago Mayor Richard
M. Daley.
Daley has
turned thumbs down on the capital package because: 1) The price the city would
have to pay for a casino license was way higher than what Daley agreed to; and
2) The governor inserted language giving himself control of all Chicago school
construction projects against Daley's wishes.
Madigan is
under intense pressure from his allies in organized labor and from many of his
fellow Democrats to approve the capital bill, but he has refused to budge. And
as long as Mayor Daley is still not satisfied with the proposal then Madigan
has more than enough political protection.
Meanwhile,
some of my best inside sources confirm that Madigan's daughter, Attorney
General Lisa Madigan, is now leaning far more towards running for governor than
she has in the past.
All of the
above is why the semipublic mulling of a 2010 gubernatorial bid by Mayor
Daley's brother Bill Daley is so interesting to me. Whether or not Bill Daley
ever decides to run for governor (and that's a debatable point), he is right
now currently testing the waters and gauging his support.
Speaker
Madigan and Mayor Daley have argued and even split in the past, but the two men
go way back, and it's practically impossible to break them apart for long.
Madigan views Richard J. Daley, the mayor's father, as his second dad. Madigan
and Daley are more than just political allies, they are almost like brothers.
That means they occasionally fight each other hard, but they usually end up on
the same side.
However,
Bill Daley is a "real" mayoral brother. He's an official member of
the ruling family, not an unofficial member like Madigan.
What I'm
trying to say here is that Speaker Madigan is facing a quite touchy situation.
The possibility that the brother of Madigan's only remaining ally in this fight
to the political death with Gov. Blagojevich might end up on the opposite side
of a primary race with his daughter, or even that he will continue openly
mulling the decision for months, could very well complicate the speaker's near
future.
Now, most
believe that some sort of arrangement will be worked out. But things could
easily become complicated with a family situation like this. A few kind words
from Mayor Daley about the capital plan, for instance, would send ripples
throughout the state's political establishment establishment and seriously
undercut Speaker Madigan's position, and possibly his daughter's.
It can't be
said enough that Madigan cannot afford to lose Mayor Daley right now, just like
Blagojevich can't afford to lose his most powerful ally Senate President Jones.
Without Daley, Madigan is friendless in his war with Blagojevich. Without
Jones, Blagojevich is in the same friendless position in his war with Madigan.
Lately,
I've gotten word from on-high that Jones has repeatedly urged state Treasurer
Alexi Giannoulias to run for governor in the 2010 election. Giannoulias is a
vocal critic of Blagojevich, so if Jones moves his direction the governor could
face unending problems.
Stay tuned
for much fun, campers.
Rich Miller
also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.