If you wanted to get an
idea of how downright negative the governor's race will be this fall all you
had to do was hang around Republican Day at the Illinois State Fair last week
and check your e-mail from the governor's campaign.
One speaker after another
ripped into the Democrats during the Republicans' annual event. The speakers
focused mainly on Gov. Rod Blagojevich and the harm he has allegedly done to
Illinois.
Republican gubernatorial
candidate Judy Baar Topinka topped the cake with a long, rambling, relentlessly
negative speech about her opponent that at times distracted and at other times
energized the crowd. Topinka is a nuts and bolts sort of person, so many of the
things that upset her about the way Blagojevich runs the government tend to fly
past most people.
For instance, during the
speech Topinka said she would put a stop to high-paid government interns. When
that get much of an audience response she quickly moved on to another item on
her endless laundry list of complaints. There was little response to this
proposal because I doubt more than a few audience members (other than the
professionals) knew what she was talking about.
I'll try to explain it
here. The governor has used state internship programs that were originally
designed for recent college graduates to get around hiring preference laws for
military veterans. The way the scam works is a politically connected swell is
given a $50,000 a year "internship" and when that expires he is moved
into a regular job without being subjected to the hiring laws that favor
veterans. It's definitely an outrage, especially during wartime, but the speech
showed she doesn't quite understand how to communicate her message.
Topinka also used the
occasion to unveil a budget-cutting proposal which primarily focused on
squeezing about $3 billion in savings from the state's Medicaid program over
the next four years. That reduction is about equal to the current Medicaid
"deficit" built into the governor's budget. The state essentially
balanced its budget by putting off paying almost $3 billion in fees to
physicians, pharmacists, dentists, hospitals and nursing homes. Because the
state is such a deadbeat, more and more providers are refusing to take Medicaid
patients even as the governor has attempted to radically expand Medicaid
programs to serve the middle class.
As a result of this
expansion, for the first time ever Medicaid spending this year will surpass
spending on K-12 education. Meanwhile, states throughout the country are, on
average, increasing their education spending more than their Medicaid spending,
according to a recent study by the National Conference of State Legislatures.
The governor's response to
Topinka's proposal was quick and searing. Blagojevich claimed Topinka was
proposing "massive cuts to health care," and wanted to take health
care "away from kids." He also claimed her "devastating
proposal" would "undermine all health care in Illinois," and
would even "lead to seniors being kicked out of nursing homes."
Imagine those images in a
campaign commercial for a moment and you can see why this governor's race will
almost assuredly end up as one of the most negative in modern Illinois history
- even more so than the 1998 campaign when Glenn Poshard all but accused George
Ryan of having a hand in the deaths of six children.
It's also a safe bet that
if Topinka can raise enough campaign money to get on TV for an extended length
of time the race could wind up as a close contest between two candidates who
both have negative ratings among voters. Those sorts of campaigns are always
the most brutal because the best way for candidates to win is to make the other
guy more unpopular. The desired result is a further depressed turnout and it's
achieved with ceaseless attacks and fear tactics.
So, just as George W. Bush
played the terrorism card, Rod Blagojevich now has the image of little old
ladies being tossed out of their nursing homes into the street and
disease-wracked children begging to see a doctor. Topinka will all but predict
that if Gov. Blagojevich is re-elected he'll be fitted for a prison jersey
before his term expires.
Enjoy.
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Rich Miller also publishes
Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and thecapitolfaxblog.com