After spending millions of
dollars on unanswered television ads, Gov. Rod Blagojevich has only an
eight-point lead over Judy Baar Topinka, according to the latest poll.
The Research 2000 poll of
800 likely voters was conducted August 28-31 and had a margin of error of 3.5
percent. The poll found that Blagojevich was leading Topinka 47-39.
Back in January, Research
2000 had Blagojevich leading Topinka 45-37. Two months later, he was leading
47-40. Other polls recorded a bump for Topinka after the March primary, which
is probably why the governor unleashed his multimillion dollar advertising
spending spree. But even after spending millions while Topinka spent nothing he
still hasn't managed to put Topinka away and we're right back where we were at
the beginning of the year.
The news coverage of the
poll so far has pointed out that Blagojevich is still under 50 percent even
after spending millions of dollars on unanswered TV ads. That's a valid point,
and it certainly shows weakness. But Illinois isn't the only state where this
is happening. The Democratic gubernatorial incumbents in both Wisconsin (Doyle)
and Michigan (Granholm) are also under 50 percent right now. And in ten of the
hottest dozen gubernatorial races in the country, just two candidates are above
50 percent - Pennsylvania, where the incumbent Democrat spent lots of early
money, and Ohio, where the Republican Party is in even worse shape than
Illinois. Apparently, nobody is all that popular this year.
Still, neither Blagojevich
nor Topinka has to get to 50 percent to win this race because of the Green
Party's Rich Whitney, who will definitely appear on the November ballot. The
survey found that Whitney was polling at 2 percent. That isn't much, but it means
that if Whitney finishes the race with the same two percent the ultimate winner
of this election will only need to get 49 percent plus one vote.
And considering that the
poll found that 20 percent of African-Americans say they were undecided, there's
a very good chance that Blagojevich is probably at 50 right now anyway since
almost all of those undecided black voters will end up on Blagojevich's side
(blacks are about 15 percent of the state's population, so 20 percent undecided
would be 3 percent of the total population, and 47 plus 3 equals 50). This
tracks with a July SurveyUSA poll which found that 25 percent of
African-American voters were either undecided or wanting another unnamed
candidate.
The good news for Topinka
is that some recent Democratic polling has shown that Blagojevich's support can
be easily undermined. Also, at this point in 1998 the vastly underfunded,
disorganized, messageless Glenn Poshard was trailing the well-funded George
Ryan by about 20 points. An eight-point deficit after being buried by a
six-month mountain of TV advertising is quite remarkable.
The governor has a big
lead over Topinka among women, 50-35 with 13 percent undecided, so his
expensive effort to demonize Topinka on social issues appears to have worked
well with female voters. The two are essentially tied among men, 44-43 with 11
percent undecided.
The poll found that 15
percent of Republicans said they are less likely to vote for a Republican in
the governor's race because of the George Ryan scandals, while 37 percent of
independents said they would be less likely to do so. That compares to 11
percent of Democrats and 22 percent of independents who said they would be less
likely to vote for Rod Blagojevich because of the questions about his hiring
practices.
Almost a third, 29
percent, said they weren't aware of the yearlong federal investigations into
the governor's office. That will likely change, as Topinka's TV advertising
begins in earnest.
Just 9 percent believed
"corruption" was the most important issue in the race - one point
ahead of "lowering gas prices" and two points ahead of
"immigration." Topinka's ad campaign will have to change a lot of
minds if she hopes to win.
Topinka will also have to
hope that the governor doesn't successfully tie her to George Ryan or George W.
Bush. The Post-Dispatch poll found that Ryan had a 35-56 favorable/unfavorable
rating, while Bush had an even worse 35-67 rating. Again, considering how the
deck seems completely stacked against her it's amazing that Topinka is still
even a factor in this race.
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Rich Miller also publishes
Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and thecapitolfaxblog.com