You may have heard that another poll is showing former
Gov. Jim Edgar with a commanding lead over Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
The poll, taken late last month by the Judy Baar Topinka
campaign, has Edgar leading Blagojevich 51 to 38.2. Edgar led everywhere except
Chicago, where Blagojevich held a 63.4 to 26.7 advantage. Edgar's largest
margin was in Downstate, where he was creaming the incumbent 62.5 to 26, but
Edgar also led in suburban Cook County (50.7 to 40.3) and the collar counties
(54.0 to 34.4). The poll's margin of error was 3.5 percent. The margins of
error for the regional results are much higher, of course.
The results are not much different than earlier polls
have reported. What makes this particular poll significant is that the
governor's people claimed in May, after a survey by the Chicago Tribune showed
the governor's numbers were in the basement, that their poll numbers are
"always" bad in the spring, but bounce back in the fall. Well, we're
almost to autumn, and the guv is still tanking. The general rule of thumb is if
poll numbers stay down too long they'll tend to stick there. If these numbers
are the same in October, then the voters have probably turned their minds off
to him and it will take a Herculean effort to get himself in a position to win,
even with all of that cash in the bank.
The governor had slightly better news from a nonpartisan
polling firm. SurveyUSA has been running monthly tracking polls in all 50
states for the past several months. In May, Governor Blagojevich's job
approval-disapproval was 36-54. In June, it was 38-55 and held at the same
38-55 in July.
The polling firm did not release its August tracker
because of the Hurricane Katrina devastation. I called last week and was told
that the August results will be released with the September numbers.
The firm was kind enough to give me a peek at the August
numbers, but I'm not allowed to print them. Suffice it to say that the guv's
job approval jumped somewhat, finally putting him above 40 percent. His
disapproval ratings eased up a slight bit as well, but the governor's negatives
are still above 50 percent. The firm polls 600 Illinois residents every month,
with a margin of error of about 4.1 percent.
Meanwhile, Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka's poll had her
leading Blagojevich 43.8 to 39.5. The treasurer was held under 50 percent
everywhere except Downstate, where she had a 54.1 to 28 lead, but she led
Blagojevich in all regions except Chicago. Polls last spring had Topinka
trailing Blagojevich, and doing relatively poorly in suburban Cook. But the new
poll has her leading in that region. Topinka is widely considered the Republican
frontrunner if Jim Edgar opts out of the race.
The Topinka poll also asked whether likely voters trusted
Gov. Blagojevich with state finances. 51 percent said "No," while
just 40.6 percent said "Yes."
65 percent of Downstaters said they didn't trust the guv
with the state's checkbook, 50.3 percent of Collar County voters said the same,
as did 48.9 percent of suburban Cook County voters (46 percent said the trusted
him in the Cook suburbs). In only one region, the city of Chicago, did voters
say they trusted the governor with the state's finances. 60.2 percent of
Chicagoans said "Yes," while just 27.1 percent said "No."
Those regional crosstabs have higher margins of error, of course.
The Illinois House and Senate Republicans are undoubtedly
praying for another Edgar run. The Senate Republicans are losing an astonishing
number of members to retirement or higher office next year and will have to
defend several districts that weren't considered competitive while the current
incumbents were still running.
Several House Republicans are considering running for
those Senate vacancies, which will force House GOP Leader Tom Cross to raise
far more money than he did during the last cycle.
The two leaders are also being told by some potential
candidates, particularly those who would be put up against Democratic
incumbents, that they prefer to wait and see what Edgar does before they
decide. If Edgar runs, the Republicans will most likely be able to recruit more
and better candidates. If he takes a pass, then their recruitment could hit a
snag.
An Edgar candidacy would go a long way towards calming
Republican nerves.
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Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political
newsletter. He can be reached at capitolfax.blogspot.com.