Two new polls show pretty
much the same thing: Illinois Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka is the only
Republican with a solid lead over Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich.
An independent poll
conducted by the Glengariff Group and a poll paid for by a Republican
businessman both show Topinka leading the governor in head-to-head matchups.
Topinka announced her intentions to run for governor last Monday.
The independent Glengariff
Group poll of 600 registered voters had Topinka leading Blagojevich 38 to 31.
Those who said they didn't know were then asked which way they were leaning,
and with those results factored in Topinka had a hefty 50-39 lead over the
governor. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percent and was taken November
2-5.
The Republican poll,
conducted by Tel Opinion research, surveyed 800 registered voters November 6
and 7 and had Topinka leading Blagojevich 47-35, with 18 percent undecided.
That poll's margin of error was 3.5 percent.
Neither poll found any of
the other Republican candidates leading Blagojevich, although when the
"leaners" are factored into the Glengariff Group's results, two
Republicans, Joe Birkett and Patrick O'Malley, were narrowly ahead.
The Republican poll had
Blagojevich leading Oberweis 42-32 with 26 percent undecided. Glengariff had
Blagojevich ahead of Oberweis 36-31, and 43-41 with "leaners."
The GOP poll had Gov.
Blagojevich ahead of Ron Gidwitz 42-23. Glengariff had Blagojevich in front of
Gidwitz 33-13, or 40-39 with leaners. Gidwitz has spent a fortune on TV and
radio ads and direct mail to date.
The Republican survey had
the governor in front of Sen. Steve Rauschenberger 42-27. Glengariff had
Blagojevich leading 33-27, and 40-38 with leaners factored into the equation.
The Republican poll found
Blagojevich was leading Sen. Bill Brady 41-25. The Glengariff Group had
Blagojevich ahead 32-26, or 40-39 with leaners.
Glengariff also asked
about former Sen. Patrick O'Malley and DuPage County State's Attorney Joe
Birkett. Blagojevich led O'Malley 34-30, but O'Malley led Blagojevich 42-39
with leaners. Blagojevich led Birkett 32-26, but Birkett was ahead 40-39 with
leaners. Birkett is not expected to run for governor, but he may run for
another office. O'Malley has quietly flirted with the idea of running, showing
up for at least one candidates forum, but has not indicated that he will
actually make the race.
The Glengariff poll found
that Topinka was winning 25 percent of the Democratic vote (with leaners), a
crucial point because of the "Glenn Poshard Factor."
The pro-life, pro-gun,
anti gay rights Democrat Poshard lost the 1998 governor's race partly because
many liberals abandoned him for George Ryan. But Poshard was not able to pick
up a significant number of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents to
overcome that loss (except in far southern Illinois). Hardcore conservatives
could abandon Topinka next fall, although they probably won't vote for
Blagojevich, so she may need some Dem votes.
Rauschenberger, Birkett
and Oberweis scored 13 percent of Democrats (with leaners), Gidwitz had 15
percent, Brady had 12 percent, O'Malley had 18 percent. Topinka also has the
highest percentage of Republican support in a general election matchup at 85
percent, with leaners.
The Glengariff Group found
that just 17 percent believed that Governor Blagojevich had "cleaned up
corruption," while 11 percent believed he had made it worse and 58 percent
said he had made no difference.
63 percent of
independents, 61 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of Democrats believed
that the governor had made no difference in corruption. 61 percent of males and
55 percent of females said he had made no difference. 21 percent of southern
Illinoisans believed he had made it worse. Just 26 percent of Chicagoans, 30
percent of Democrats, 6 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of independents
believed he cleaned it up. The governor obviously has a long way to go to
convince people that he hasn't broken his promise to "end business as
usual."
The Republican poll also
found the governor's job approval to be 44 percent, while his disapproval was
48 percent. That's the highest job approval number for Blagojevich that any
poll has found in almost a year - the only truly encouraging result from either
poll.
If these numbers don't
change soon, Blagojevich will need every penny of his expected $25 million war
chest to win next year.
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Rich Miller also publishes
Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be reached at
capitolfax.blogspot.com