The real retail issues
analysis by Mike Kroll
While
economics always seems to creep into every Galesburg political issue, all too
often what is left out is an appreciation of the lessons of history and, that
most precious commodity, common sense. Spurring this discussion is the
apparently sudden interest in retail expansion taking place currently in
Galesburg. Let us step back and apply a bit of analysis to the dilemma as I
evaluate some choices facing the Galesburg City Council.
The
controversy of the day concerns the proposal for a new shopping center
(Galesburg Commons) by the First Rockford Group to be located in the currently
empty field immediately north of Route 34 and south of the Lincolnshire
subdivision. It should come as no surprise that the residents of that
relatively upscale subdivision are opposed to the proposal; this is Galesburg
where NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) is a second language. Just as those
neighboring the location of the Horne Properties proposed shopping center on
North Seminary Street between Carl Sandburg Drive and Route 34 similarly
objected before that project won City Council approval. But this proposed
project is simply a symptom of a much bigger question: what is the proper role
of retail sales in Galesburg's economic development picture?
Recent
years have seen the closure of a number of medium- and large-sized industrial
employers (Briggs, Butler, Maytag, National Seal) as well as significant
cutbacks at others (notably Gates Rubber). Many in our community have forecast
nothing but doom and gloom in the wake of these admittedly disconcerting
events. The evidence suggests that Galesburg has been hurt far less than most
believe.
While
Knox County unemployment is slightly higher than the state average, it didn't
skyrocket as expected. Most of the best workers who lost their jobs reacted
quickly to find other work — frequently out of town — but most
remained Galesburg residents. Many found jobs even before their plant closed.
They are now working for good
wages at the BNSF railroad or at
Deere or Caterpillar.
The
city's population hasn't dropped like a stone as predicted. While some families
left in search of better employment prospects, Galesburg once again became a
magnet for retirees as well as residents of rural Knox County. It is my
prediction that when the next census is done, Galesburg's city population will
have fallen only slightly while that of Knox County as a whole will drop as
much as six or seven percent. The biggest losers have been the smaller towns
and unincorporated areas of Knox County and Warren County as a whole.
Most
of us have long since given up dreams of one or more large manufacturing plants
coming to Galesburg to replace the lost industry. That just isn't going to
happen. The self-delusion that has taken over many is that a bunch of smaller
manufacturing or ÒlogisticsÓ operations will soon arrive instead. The problem
with this vision is that we have literally had decades of ÒeffortÓ by local
economic development groups like the former EDC or Galesburg 2000 or the
current Galesburg Regional Economic Development Association without a single
attraction success (accounting for 100 or more jobs). We need another plan. We
need a broader definition of economic development and we need some home-grown
successes.
This
is where the current surge in proposed retail activity gains the mindset of
many in Galesburg, including most of the city council. Many believe that there
are lots and lots of talented and motivated potential workers unemployed and
looking for anything with a paycheck. This viewpoint sees the prospect of new
retail jobs as better than no new jobs at all even if the wages are a far cry
from those once available with local industries and typically offer little or
no benefits. This is clearly the mindset of GREDA officials who boast of a
large, able workforce willing to work cheap as one of Galesburg's benefits to
companies considering relocating here.
The
fact is this workforce-in-waiting simply doesn't exist. Those who lost good
jobs fall into four categories. The best educated, most energetic and talented
have— by and large — already found new jobs elsewhere. A portion of
these folks were hired by the BNSF and are doing better than ever (after they
adjust to the irregular hours). Some of these folks now commute daily to John
Deere or Caterpillar or Komatsu or other plants in Peoria or the Quad
Cities. Others have sadly moved
away from Galesburg.
A
second group of workers was older with their best working years behind them but
with grown kids, relatively good health and savings for retirement just a few
years off they have adjusted their expectations and retired a bit early. Many
of these people might be happy to take on a retail job for a few extra bucks to
help maintain a comfortable lifestyle but they aren't about to chase after a
new job or career at this point in their lives.
A
third group is younger but not as well-educated as needed today. Time once was
where even without a high school diploma one could earn a comfortable living in
a local factory, raise some kids and retire in a middle-class lifestyle. They
probably still have children at home, some are single parents and most have
little savings. Not only are there no longer substitute jobs for these people
in Galesburg, those jobs basically don't exist anywhere any longer. In this
same group are those workers who always had hoped to get out of factory work
but couldnÕt afford to quit their job to go to school. These are the workers
best situated to benefit from the subsidized educational programs offered by
Carl Sandburg College — if they are up to the academic rigors and sufficiently
motivated and if appropriate jobs
exist by the time the training and funding are completed. The two-year time
period is running out now for some of those in this group. For many who complete the training, too
few jobs exist locally to capitalize without relocating. Another commuter is
born.
The
final group are those remaining out of work or working at jobs paying far less
than their previous employer. They never really broadened their employment
search sufficiently or suffered by comparison to other available workers and
couldn't land a job with BNSF or Deere or Caterpillar. Most of these people
aren't close to retirement age and either weren't sufficiently motivated or prepared
to take advantage of training opportunities. Many would be happy to get a
retail job as their options have narrowed greatly. Fortunately, the cost of
living in Galesburg is comparatively attractive, particularly housing costs,
and these compose much of the potential workforce anxiously awaiting a GREDA
success.
A
fact not uttered in polite conversation around GREDA is that if they ever are
successful in bringing an employer with more than dozens of jobs it will almost
surely be necessary to import workers from outside of Galesburg and Knox
County. The attractive and readily
available workforce they boast about is a myth unless you truly broaden
to a regional view of a 50-mile or more radius around Galesburg. Interestingly
this is the reverse of what many workers and shoppers from Galesburg already
do, they commute to Peoria or the Quad Cities to work or shop right now.
A
sizable amount of Galesburg's payroll originates outside of town and a good
portion of our shopping dollars are spent out of town. This is exactly the kind
of analysis that has led developers to look seriously at Galesburg for retail
development. While there are many in town who fear that there aren't sufficient
consumer dollars to support these proposed developments, the ratio of sales tax
generated per capita in Galesburg is well below state and national averages. In
addition, the recent surge in gas prices makes shopping locally more
attractive. That means if a retailer can capture the money currently spent in
Peoria or the Quad Cities by Galesburg shoppers, they expect to do just fine.
In a nutshell, that accounts for the interest of Horne Properties and First
Rockford Group.
That
said, both are counting on the same major anchor, a Wal-Mart Supercenter, and
only one is going to win that battle. Most probably Horne will be the victor.
The Horne development makes much more sense and from the city officials'
perspective must be more attractive. As was pointed out during the Plan
Commission meeting, the Galesburg city council can literally control where the
new Wal-Mart Supercenter goes by their decision on pre-annexation conditions
for the First Rockford property. Without Wal-Mart the First Rockford plan seems
a very long shot despite the companyÕs claims.
While
most of the neighborsÕ objections aren't worth the space to rebut here, the
single entrance/exit should be a major (and apparently uncorrectable)
deficiency in the First Rockford plan. The extremely limited access to this
parcel combined with an already bad intersection has to be seen as a major
stumbling block to retail development of this parcel. Interestingly, I have
been told that over the last few years a number of retail projects have been
quietly proposed for this space but all fell through when the IDOT refused to
approve the traffic plan. One can only guess what has motivated IDOT to
suddenly do an about-face and indicate their willingness to approve the First
Rockford plan.
The
often raised issue of ÒbufferÓ zones has really become a joke. History has
shown that there is no such thing as an acceptable buffer to those who object
to development. The most commonly cited buffer alternatives are multi-family or
office zoning yet these seldom win over the objectors in practice. In the case
of the parcel in the First Rockford Group proposal, were there a current need
for either offices or apartments in Galesburg I am absolutely sure that the
residents of Lincolnshire would still object to placement next to their homes.
Personally, I think the best use of this property would probably be apartments,
if there were a demonstrated need for such a development.
Another
factor that is never mentioned but is key to the economic realities of these
developments is the cost of land. While most would assume that affordable land
would be a Galesburg advantage, that is hardly the case. The owners of much of
the vacant large parcels in and around Galesburg want a premium price for the
land. It would be very difficult to make the numbers work for a typical
single-family residential development given the purchase price of the land
involved. Any such homes would be compelled to sell for a substantial premium
price. Furthermore, given the rental market pricing in Galesburg, most
apartment construction would be financially untenable here even if it were welcomed
by the current residents of Lincolnshire.
The
cost of land has also been an issue in attracting industrial development. It
wasnÕt a small factor in GREDAÕs purchase of the acreage for their Logistics
Park even though they had no serious prospects. They had been burned by greedy
landowners before and wanted to lock in a price they could offer a prospective
business.
Perhaps
the time has come where we must begin to consider retail development and the
sales tax it generates as a component of economic development. From a revenue
standpoint, there are few other new sources of city tax money short of raising
property taxes. For most Galesburg shoppers the added revenue gleaned from new
retail would not amount to increased taxation. Rather it would be reclaiming
sales tax dollars currently lost to Peoria or the Quad Cities. In this way,
such new retail development is a good thing even if it offers only
comparatively low wage jobs. Ironically, it has been demonstrated elsewhere
that an influx of competing retail or fast food vendors frequently results in
upward pressure on wages as they compete for the limited number of good
employees. Each of the stores and restaurants will also have at least one or
two management employees with decent wages and benefits.
The
downside is that the economic vitality and future of our community has to
depend also on the creation of new good-paying jobs that won't occur in any
substantial number with retail development. Without a diverse range of
employment opportunities there will be little reason for the best of our
children to return to Galesburg as adults to raise their own families.
Galesburg may manage to survive on retail and retirees but we can only thrive
if we do much better.