Caucus
candidates campaign in Burlington
By
Mike Kroll
The
Zephyr, Galesburg
It was Saturday in Burlington, Iowa and three,
count'em, three presidential candidates visited town.. Five days and the last
weekend before the Iowa caucuses and Òretail politicsÓ dominate the campaign.
For the presidential wannabes who haven't written off this first official test
of the 2008 campaign season time is running out and they all know that in ten
days the field of candidates will be significantly reduced.
On the Democratic side three candidates are in a
statistical dead-heat in the polls, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John
Edwards are pulling out all stops for an Iowa win. Meanwhile Chris Dodd
continues his apparently fruitless quest here; Bill Richardson and Joe Biden
continue to run television ads and make Iowa appearances to small crowds while
looking forward to the potential of a miracle in New Hampshire to keep their
campaigns afloat. The long shot progressive and stridently anti-Iraq War
candidate Dennis Kucinich began telling his supporters to caucus for Obama on
New Year's Day as he reads the Iowa tea leaves.
Republicans Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are battling
fiercely in what just a few weeks ago appeared to be a a gimme for Romney. Fred
Thompson is stumbling about the state in relative obscurity, so obscure that he
too was in Burlington on Saturday but The Zephyr didn't learn about the
appearance until it was long over. Meanwhile cult-favorite Ron Paul continues
his status as the most unique libertine Republican candidate. Rudy Giuliani's
strategy largely ignores Iowa and places only minimal effort in New Hampshire
but even he made appearances in Iowa Saturday while John McCain has more
completely ignored Iowa and is betting the ranch on that first primary and a
string of recent newspaper endorsements-- including the Des Moines Register.
The political morning in Burlington started early as
Obama held an enthusiastic rally in the Pzazz Convention and Event Center to a
standing-room only crowd of upwards of 600. The room is adjacent to the Catfish
Bend Casino and was a last minute change from the auditorium of Notre Dame High
School when officials of the Catholic archdiocese overruled the earlier
decision of local high school officials reportedly due to Obama's pro-choice
position on abortion. One could come to consider presidential politics and
religion as other means of gambling.
The Obama event was well organized and attracted a
Democratic crowd of typical working- and middle-class Iowans with an
over-representation of women. One of those woman was Pamela Johnson who
acknowledged being a committed Obama supporter. ÒHe's less like your typical
politician and more like a regular person. He's incredibly smart and caring and
listening to him speak won me over.Ó
Ned Fry of West Burlington described Obama as,
ÒInspiring, not unlike [former president John F.] Kennedy but even more of the
people. There is an incredible energy that you can feel when he walks into a
room and it only gets that much stronger when he begins speaking. Obama cares
about the regular guy and shares our suspicion of politics in Washington. He
won't forget the importance of the problems in this country and he won't sell
out to big money interests either.Ó
Before the speeches began I had the opportunity to
speak to a good number of the people attending the rally. I would estimate that
two-thirds to three-fourths of those present were already committed Obama
supporters. A number of people identified themselves as independent voters who
see Obama as a refreshing change. As the candidate himself later pointed our
during his speech, two of the key goals of rallies such as this is to identify
(a) committed Obama supporters who can be ÒencouragedÓ to caucus for Obama
Thursday night FOR Obama and (b) undecided voters and independents who can be
won over with some additional discussion of Obama's strengths and virtues as a
candidate.
Historically turnout at Iowa caucuses is less than
spectacular. Only a select few are so committed that they will devote two hours
of their time and publicly declare their support for a presidential candidate
before the neighbors. Obama's organization, as well as that of Hillary Clinton,
are working hard to get their supporters who otherwise would not participate
out on caucus night. The plan of the John Edwards Iowa team is a bit different,
they have focused their attention on winning over the hearts and minds of
committed caucus veterans to Edwards camp. Iowa Democratic party officials are
expecting much higher than typical turnout due to the efforts of the Obama and
Clinton campaigns but severe winter temperatures and snow could well serve as a
potent counterbalance.
Once onsite after 6:30pm on Thursday the doors at each
caucus site are locked at 7pm and participants are asked to sit or stand in a
group with the other supporters of each candidate. Iowa Democratic Party rules
mandate that no candidate with less than 15 percent of the voters present is
considered Òviable.Ó Once the room is counted and the viability number
determined supporters of Ònon-viableÓ candidates must either win over
additional support to reach viability or, more likely, be won over by the
viable candidates in their precinct. In this way a voter's second choice
candidate becomes very important to the outcome of the caucus. Marginal and
minor candidates will come away with no support in that precinct.
In this way it becomes clear just how important a
candidate's campaign organization is to their success in the Iowa Democratic
caucus battle. Not only is it important to get your supporters out to caucus
but each organization must have a strong precinct captain and a convincing
argument to win over the second choice caucus goers. None of this political
intrigue matters much in the Republican Party Caucus as the merely report the
raw number of supporter who show up and declare a candidate preference without
any respect to Òviability.Ó In this respect the only difference between the
Iowa Republican caucus and a primary is the absence of a secret ballot and a
specified time to cast your ballot.
Freshman Congressman Dave Leobsack-D was an early and
enthusiastic Obama supporter and praised Obama's early anti-war stance and
positive campaign for change in our nation's capital. His brief warm-up speech
was followed by Obama's introduction by Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick.
Patrick's origins were on Chicago's southside where he came to know the
Illinois junior Senator as a young lawyer and community activist. The presence
of two African-American politician's was notable as there were but a few other
minorities sprinkled in the crowd. The relative lack of diversity along with
the rural nature of Iowa are two of the reasons this state can hardly be
considered a representative indicator of any presidential candidate's true
level of national support.
Leobsack
is an Iowa native and speaks like the academic he was when he upset Republican
Jim Leach who had served Iowa's second district in Congress for 30 years.
Patrick was only a marginally better speaker but he had no problem winning over
a crowd that wanted to get excited about Obama. ÒThe current administration has
been ineffective in foreign policy and absent in domestic policy. Senator Obama
is the right man for the right reasons right now! ...When you close your eyes
and imaging the kind of leadership we need you know the image that comes to
mind is Barack Obama.Ó
When Obama himself got to the podium he apologized for
a slightly faltering voice and then went on to give another great speech. There
is no doubt that few candidate's of either party can compare to Obama as a
speaker even when all he does is repeat the oft repeated points of his campaign
that have been heard ad nauseum via television commercials in a speech that was
too long at over 50 minutes. Obama spent a significant amount of time attempting
to counter arguments put forth by others regarding his electability and
experience without pointing out that nearly all of Clinton's experience came in
the role of First Lady. Of course there are far more experienced hands in this
race than any of the three Democratic front runners who are gaining no traction
in this campaign.
Obama undeniably has presence and political sense. He
showed both by a genuine self-deprecating humor and through his recognition of
key campaign volunteers in Des Moines County, Iowa. At one point he invited his
two key local organizers on stage and asked the assembled crowd to raise their
hands if they were still undecided. Obama then told the two young men to note
who raised their hands and Òget to work.Ó As moving as his speech was Obama
offered few specifics as he described his plans for America in broad strokes to
many cheers from the assembled crowd.
Burlington was just the first of six eastern Iowa
campaign stops for Obama on Saturday and when he finished and finally left for
his next stop in Fort Madison he was already behind schedule. At the other end
of the day Romney and his wife and high school sweetheart Ann made an evening
appearance in Burlington at the country club. Eschewing his suit and tie for a
sweater and slacks (apparently for the first time in this campaign) Romney
arrived with a comparatively small entourage to speak before an enthusiastic
crowd that was much larger than expected by his organization.
The country club's ice covered parking lot was nearly
full and extra chairs were hastily assembled in the banquet room to accommodate
over 100 supporters. Romney and his wife arrived only a few minutes late and
were introduced by a Burlington Methodist preacher who was a less than polished
speaker despite many years in the pulpit. As a couple the Romneys and natural
campaigners. Both are bright and articulate if not emotionally compelling
speakers and their affection for one another and their family is plainly
evident.
Romney's campaign message is simple and straightforward
and contains very few details. ÒI believe the strength of America lies in the
strength of her people. I am running for President because I want to keep
America strong. That means a strong military, strong economy, and strong
families. We are facing many challenges, but America has always overcome these
challenges in the past, and I am confident that we can do so again.Ó
Romney supports the Bush Iraq policy although not as
stridently as John McCain while he seeks to escape his record as a relatively
moderate Massachusetts governor as he reaches out to the social and religious
right of the Republican party. His message was warmly received by those who
filled the county club banquet room and politely applauded in all the right
places. This wasn't a stereotypical Òcountry club crowdÓ but rather a more
socially conservative group that wasn't about to challenge anything Romney said
but weren't keen to speak to the press about their political beliefs either. To
my eye these were exactly the same Iowa voters Mike Huckabee is working so hard
to win over in Thursday night's caucus.
Both Obama and Romney were effective at their
respective events but the scales were very different and Obama attracted nearly
five times the number of Romney. As people left both events campaign staff were
present to hand out literature, sign-up prospective caucus goers and distribute
bumper stickers and yard signs. As the crowd thinned after the Obama morning
event there was nothing left on the tables and some left empty handed while
lots of Romney campaign material and yard signs remained after everyone had
left his rally.
1/3/08