The
governor has said he wants billions more a year for a universal healthcare
plan. Last week, a coalition of business and labor groups called on the state
to put $5 billion a year into transportation for five years. The Regional
Transportation Authority estimates it needs $57 billion over 30 years to
maintain, enhance and expand transit services.
Also
last week, state Sen. James Meeks and the teachers unions unveiled a modified
version of the infamous Senate Bill 750, which will not only provide new
education dollars and roll back property taxes, but will also pump $3 billion
into the state's underfunded pension systems.
Also,
businesses big and small are apoplectic over the rumors that Gov. Blagojevich
will propose a multibillion dollar "gross receipts tax."
The
tax would zap pretty much every transaction performed by businesses and provide
billions of dollars (the business groups say maybe as much as $9 billion) a
year for state coffers. At least one new coalition has been formed to fight it,
and more are likely on the way.
Are
we headed for the mother of all tax hikes?
Let's
not get ahead of ourselves here.
House
Speaker Michael Madigan is still not communicating directly with Gov. Rod
Blagojevich. Senate President Emil Jones and Blagojevich (and their staffs) are
meeting regularly and appear to be preparing to shove the governor's and Jones'
agenda down Madigan's throat, which won't go over well.
The
governor's absolute top priority, as noted above, is an expensive healthcare
package, while Sen. Jones' top spending item is education funding. Nobody knows
yet where Madigan's priorities are, but he is very interested in pension
funding.
As
I've told you before, Madigan and Blagojevich aren't getting along at all.
Jones and Madigan are also having lots of problems with their relationship. The
battle developing between the three Democrats appears almost Romanesque - a
fight to the end, rather than just your usual political spat. I say
"almost" because Roman politicians often used real knives and swords
and drew real blood. I doubt we'll ever get to that point here.
Madigan's
initial reaction to the "gross receipts" tax rumor was not positive,
insiders say, which could set up a major showdown - that is, if the business
groups are correct and the governor goes through with the idea. Right now, we
have no idea either way. Many of Madigan's most politically endangered
incumbents were endorsed by big business groups last fall, and Madigan has
positioned himself as their defender since then. For instance, he held up the
minimum wage increase until some of their objections were addressed, and he
gutted and then essentially killed off the 7 percent Cook County assessment
cap, which business wanted dead.
And
then there's the House Republicans. House GOP Leader Tom Cross will have to put
votes on any proposal that includes longterm borrowing, like transportation
projects, because those bills require a three-fifths vote. The Senate
Republicans have been aced out of the process because Democratic Senate
President Jones has more than a three-fifths majority in his chamber.
The
bipartisan, multi-regional pressure to pass a capital bill this year is so
intense, as amply illustrated by the diverse business-labor coalition behind
it, that Cross may be able to withhold his caucus' votes and force a more
"reasonable" revenue enhancement and benefits package for the
governor's healthcare plan and Jones' education ideas.
Cross
has already said that he opposes a tax hike, but said he is open to gaming
expansion. Almost no matter what they do, there's pretty much no way that
gaming money can fund all of the governor's and Jones' priorities, but it's a
pretty good start.
And,
finally, there are asset sales. The governor says he can get $10 billion if he
puts the lottery on the auction block. There are those who say that he could be
open to a tollway sale as well (Sen. Meeks, who negotiated the lottery sale for
education funding, has often hinted as much), even though the governor said
repeatedly during the campaign that he wasn't for that particular idea. In the
end, gaming and asset sales may be a way to avoid a drastic tax increase and
may look a whole lot more inviting come May than they do now.
What
this all adds up to is potentially the most interesting legislative session
since Jim Thompson was in charge. Or, if the Democrats can't get their acts
together, the mother of all duds.
-30-
Rich
Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com