Pat
Quinn is the most popular Illinois governor in more than a decade.
A
new statewide poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports found that Gov. Quinn has a
61 percent job approval rating. The poll of 500 likely Illinois voters
conducted April 14th claims that Quinn's job approval rating is five points
higher than US Sen. Dick Durbin's 56 percent "favorable" rating, and
six points lower than President Barack Obama's home state 67 percent job
approval rating. The poll's margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points
That's
pretty darned good for a guy who has been widely denounced for proposing a
"50 percent income tax increase."
Drill
into the numbers, though, and Quinn's support is a bit soft, or
"shallow," as the case may be.
The
vast majority of voter opinion is in the muddled middle, which isn't surprising
considering that he's only been governor for less than three months and wasn't
elected on his own. Forty-four percent of likely voters "somewhat"
approve of his job performance (compared to 16 percent who said the same about
Obama) and 23 percent "somewhat" disapprove (9 percent for Obama).
Quinn's
"strongly" approve and "strongly" disapprove numbers are
both fairly low - 17 and 14 percent, respectively. Few truly love or hate him
at this point.
The
governor's "somewhat approve" numbers are near or above 40 percent in
almost every single demographic, including Republicans. An impressive 41
percent of Republicans "somewhat" approve of Quinn's job performance.
Just 21 percent of GOP voters said the same about Obama. Almost half, 47
percent, of Democrats somewhat approve of his performance (13 percent for
Obama), while 37 percent of conservatives, 46 percent of whites, 45 percent of
blacks 39 percent of married people and 53 percent of unmarried folks all
"somewhat" approve of Quinn's performance in office.
That
softness might mean things could change in a hurry if voters decide he isn't
living up to expectations. His tax hike proposals, especially, could move
numbers fast. So far, though, they haven't, despite widespread reporting on the
tax hike plan and lots of angry commentary against it. That's incredibly good
news for Quinn, at least for now.
Quinn's
"somewhat disapprove" numbers follow about the same sort of pattern.
Thirty percent of Republicans, 19 percent of Democrats, 21 percent of whites
and 24 percent of blacks all "somewhat" disapproved of Quinn's job
performance. Always keep in mind, of course, that margins of error in these
subgroups will be substantially higher than the entire sample.
These
appear to be the highest job approval ratings of any Illinois governor we've
had since Jim Edgar left the governor's office in January of 1999 with job
approval ratings in the high 60s to mid 70s.
Former
Gov. George Ryan's numbers dropped like a rock soon after he was inaugurated
because of the quickly expanding federal investigation and his flip-flop on a
sales tax hike. Rod Blagojevich topped out at 55 percent in a January, 2004
Tribune survey, although he bragged at the time that his own polling showed he
had a 66 percent approval rating.
People
are obviously pleased with this new change in leadership, if understandably
hesitant to give Quinn a full-throated endorsement.
This
will also be welcome news for Illinois Democrats in general, who have been
pummeled by scandal after scandal the past few years and are attempting to deal
with a gigantic state budget deficit. The result will also likely embolden
Quinn and possibly strengthen his hand in dealings with the General Assembly
this spring.
But,
like I said above, he has to be careful here.
For
instance, the governor has spent a whole lot of time pointing fingers at
everyone else for their ethical lapses, but has yet to issue any sort of mea
culpa for his own role in Blagojevich's rise to power. Quinn was blatantly used
by Blagojevich in 2002 and in 2006 to help boost his own reformer bona fides
and Quinn seemed always happy to comply.
Quinn
repeatedly defended Blagojevich against charges of corruption and happily went
along with the program in both the 2002 and 2006 campaigns. When it was evident
to just about everyone that Blagojevich was a criminal, Quinn cheered almost
every move.
He's
been able to get away with it because people (myself included) are so happy to
finally be rid of the criminal ogre that we've been willing to cut Quinn extra
slack.
That
may not last forever.
-30-
Rich
Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.