It
may be no surprise to some, but new polling shows Barack Obama is doing better
with hardcore Illinois primary voters than Hillary Clinton is doing with voters
in her own home state of New York. Also, voters are split over whether Obama
should be more critical of Chicago corruption, and the Republican presidential
primary appears wide open here.
The
Illinois poll was commissioned by my political newsletter, Capitol Fax. The
poll, taken last Thursday, surveyed registered voters who have chosen either
Democratic or Republican ballots in the last two presidential primaries and
have never picked a different ballot. They're the hardcore of the hardcore and
are very likely to vote.
The
poll found Obama leading the pack of presidential hopefuls here with 52.6
percent of the vote among hardcore Democrats. Clinton came in second with 24.6
percent. Former US Sen. John Edwards was third with 9.5 percent. None of the
other declared candidates topped 3 percent, while 6.9 percent chose either
"other" or "undecided."
In
New York, two recent polls have shown Clinton with a bigger lead, but polling
well under 50 percent. A Quinnipac University poll had her ahead of Obama 44 to
14, but a more recent survey from Siena College's Research Institute had
Clinton ahead of the second place Obama 39-17 with 13 percent of Democrats
undecided.
Obama
captured well over 70 percent of the vote in the 2004 US Senate race, so his
Illinois numbers in this latest poll might be a surprise to some who expected
him to be doing even better. Clinton was raised in Illinois and is, of course,
a very well known commodity. That probably explains why she is polling higher
here than Obama is polling in New York.
The
Illinois poll also found voters are evenly split over whether Obama has been
sufficiently critical of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley regarding corruption in
City Hall.
A
tad over 49 percent of hardcore Democratic and Republican primary voters said
they believed Obama has sufficiently criticized Daley, who just won another
landslide re-election race, while 50.8 percent said he has not been critical
enough.
The
issue of Obama's alliance with the Daley Machine has been a much bigger issue
in Illinois than it has been on the national stage. But since this story is
being constantly pushed here, it has the potential to one day bleed into the
national debate.
About
60 percent of hardcore Democratic and Republican residents of Chicago and Cook
County thought he had criticized Daley enough, but just 36 percent of downstate
voters believe he has sufficiently criticized Daley.
Slightly
under 61 percent of hardcore Democratic voters said he has done enough to
criticize Daley, while 35 percent of hardcore GOP voters said the same. A
majority, 53 percent, of suburban collar county primary voters said he has
criticized the mayor enough while 47 percent said he hadn't.
Meanwhile,
the poll also showed that Illinois' Republican presidential primary appears to
be wide open.
The
survey of hardcore Republican primary voters showed US Sen. John McCain with an
ever-so-slight lead over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. McCain was
ahead of Giuliani 26.1 to 25.7.
Former
US Sen. and TV actor Fred Thompson came in third with 17.7 percent. Former
Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was fourth with 10.2 percent and former Wisconsin
governor and George W. Bush cabinet member Tommy Thompson was fifth with just
3.3 percent. Undecideds and "other" totaled 17 percent.
McCain
is slipping rapidly in national polling, but he still has support among
Illinoisans who backed him in his 2000 presidential bid. Giuliani recently
signed up House Republican Leader Tom Cross, who is helping get that
organization together. Thompson has not yet formally announced, but he is
looking more like a candidate every day.
The
automated phone poll was conducted by "Ask Illinois," which has done
a lot of polling for political candidates and interest groups and has a good
reputation among insiders. The firm uses special technology to blast out
hundreds of calls simultaneously and they contact huge numbers of people. In
this case 3,509 hardcore Democrats and 3,761 Republicans responded to the poll,
leaving us with an extremely low margin of error of +/- 1.18 to +/-1.52
percent, depending on the question. Republicans and Democrats who indicated
they intend to cross over to the other party next year were omitted from these
results. The difference was statistically insignificant.
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Rich
Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com