Sen. James Meeks
(D-Chicago) has continuously brushed aside notions that he wouldn't run for
governor on a third party ticket, saying last week, for instance, that he is
very encouraged by the results of a new poll he commissioned which shows him
right in the race.
The Meeks poll has some
more bad news for Gov. Rod Blagojevich, but also a rare spot of good news. The
survey was taken April 25-30 by Washington, DC-based pollster Lester &
Associates and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
According to the survey,
Gov. Blagojevich's "generic" re-election numbers are not that great.
When asked whether he deserves re-election, just 36 percent agree, compared to
55 percent who want someone else. Nine percent didn't know. Blagojevich's job
approval is 35 percent, with 45 percent disapproving and 20 percent not
knowing. But even with those lousy numbers, for the first time since the
primary Blagojevich is leading Judy Baar Topinka, 47-40.
When Meeks is tossed into
the equation, Blagojevich leads with 41, Topinka has 34, Meeks has 12, and 13
percent are undecided. After several "push questions," which were
designed to test Meeks' message of his religious affiliation, his opposition to
gay marriage and abortion and his support of billions more in school funding,
Blagojevich drops to 37 percent while Meeks and Topinka are tied at 25 percent
each. Undecideds remain at 13 percent.
This last result, with
Blagojevich still leading after the "push" questions and Meeks
hurting Topinka much more, could help Meeks ward off critics, especially in the
black community, who claim that his candidacy would destroy the Democratic
governor's chances.
This is also pretty much
exactly where Meeks said he needed to be to even consider a run. Meeks said
shortly before the poll was taken that he wanted, at a minimum, to be at 10
percent in the pre-push horse race question, and then have that doubled after
the push. He exceeded both of those goals.
Meeks also included a
question about the arguments for and against his run. Just 27 percent agreed
with the statement that Meeks should not run because "an Independent
African-American candidate from Chicago could doom Governor BlagojevichÕs
chances of winning re-election." While 56 percent agreed with the
statement that Meeks should run "because the Democrats have taken blacks
and others for granted and itÕs time for a change."
Meeks still won't say
whether he has made up his mind yet about the race, and I'll grant you that
those post-push numbers are artificially high (as they usually are). But what
matters is not whether you and I believe he is tied with Topinka at 25 percent,
it's all about whether he believes it.
Meanwhile, Topinka's own
polling shows that Gov. Blagojevich has moved ahead of her. After four straight
independent polls with Topinka leading, her latest poll reportedly shows
Blagojevich with a 5-point advantage. The governor's polling also reportedly
shows him ahead.
The Blagojevich surge is
undoubtedly the result of the governor's television advertising campaign. The
guv is spending over $500,000 a week, mostly on negative ads that attack
Topinka for everything from not showing up for state investment board meetings
to tying her to George Ryan's budget deficits.
So far, the Topinka
campaign has refused to respond in kind, preferring instead to blast back at
the governor via press conference and press release.
Even with the five-point
polling deficit, Topinka's people point to Republican Jim Ryan's 18-point
deficit at this time in the campaign four years ago as proof that she is doing
much better than others have. Dawn Clark Netsch was down 30 points to Jim Edgar
at this point in 1994, the Topinka people say.
But Republicans and others
are still getting nervous about Topinka breaking the cardinal rule that TV
advertising attacks should always be immediately answered. Dawn Clark Netsch
didn't respond when she was attacked early, and neither did Glenn Poshard in
1998. Jim Ryan also didn't have the cash to immediately strike back in 2002.
Still, Topinka's campaign has believed her poll ratings would carry her through
for a little while.
The Republican worries are
compounded by the breathtaking collapse of support for national Republicans in
general and President Bush in particular. They're right. She needs to get in
the game soon.
-30-
Rich Miller also publishes
Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be reached at
thecapitolfaxblog.com