So,
what the heck was House Speaker Michael Madigan up to last week when he finally
came out in support of an income tax increase and urged the governor to drop
his opposition to the idea?
Madigan
has always been coy about whether he really supports an income tax hike. Most
people thought he probably did, and that he might somehow be maneuvering the
legislative session in that direction. So, when he finally announced that he
supported the increase, the whole Statehouse took notice.
On
one level, it was a response to a letter sent by Gov. Rod Blagojevich earlier
in the week demanding that Madigan and the two Republican legislative leaders
come up with an alternative revenue stream to fund education. It was also
undoubtedly designed to get tongues wagging and freak out the governor, a
staunch opponent of the tax hike.
It
certainly did both of those. While the Statehouse buzzed with talk of Madigan's
remarks, Gov. Blagojevich reportedly ranted about the income tax idea during a
meeting of the legislative leaders, loudly taunting Madigan and others who
attended "Go ahead and pass it," over and over again. Blagojevich was
concerned enough about earlier revelations that Jones and Madigan had been
privately talking about the budget and about Jones' agreement during that days'
leaders meeting that he would work with Madigan to craft a new budget that he
kept Jones in his office for several minutes after the other leaders had left.
Jones
emerged from that long conversation with his session-long political ally to
tell reporters that the Senate would give an income tax increase "strong
consideration" if Madigan passed it out of the House. The Senate President
claimed that he was against a "regressive" sales tax increase.
"But I'm open to the income tax," Jones said. Jones had been a strong
proponent of an income tax increase until earlier this year, when he decided to
side with the governor's massive - and now deceased - tax on business.
While
the place was still buzzing, Madigan eventually pointed to the governor's
strong and often-stated opposition to an income tax hike as a major reason why
the tax increase would probably never happen.
All
that being said, with everything working against an income tax hike, and
keeping in mind that I'm with those who think that it's highly unlikely if not
impossible, if you were going to design a scenario that could produce an income
tax increase, the situation that the General Assembly finds itself in right now
is probably it. And, as we all know, Madigan is a crafty fellow, so he has to
be watched closely.
An
income tax hike couldn't have been accomplished during the regular legislative
session. There just wasn't enough pressure on members. Overtime is different.
It takes a three-fifths majority to pass anything, which is the same number of
members required to override a veto. The governor thought that he could wear
down the House by calling them into special sessions several days a week, but
his in-your-face antics and anti-Madigan rhetoric have fired up and united
House members like never before.
It's
the Senate which is causing the real problems for the governor. Senate President
Jones' health hasn't been all that great and the overtime session has been
difficult for him. His members are fed up and want a deal, and they don't
appreciate the governor's inability to move the ball forward.
Like
Madigan, Jones is a crafty man and requires a close watch.
As
a legislative leader, Jones naturally prizes negotiating skills, and his
negotiating partner until now - the governor - is noticeably lacking in those
abilities. Jones is looking for a way to end this interminable session (in what
might possibly be his last term in office) and fulfill a career-long dream of
"solving" the education funding situation once and for all. The
governor, who is still committed to his own dream of universal health
insurance, is getting in the way of Jones' aspirations.
While
an income tax hike is still a very unlikely event, this same environment could
help produce a Jones-Madigan agreement that might break the gridlock and
produce a deal on other revenue ideas. And that's what Madigan's gambit might
have been all about. Find common ground with someone (Jones) who is allied with
a political rival (Blagojevich) and build on it.
Stay
tuned.
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Rich
Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com