Senate President Emil Jones began a meeting of his
Democratic members not long ago with a playful announcement that despite what
everyone had read and heard, he had no intention of retiring from office.
He was joking, of course, but while the joke may
have temporarily relieved a bit of tension in the room, there's still plenty of
infighting ahead.
Forget about getting the required majority of 30
votes in January to replace Jones as president. The big problem now is just
finding 19 votes - a majority of the Democratic caucus. There are almost that
many Democratic Senators floating their names right now, whether they are
really serious or not, so this will take some time.
To give you an example, Sen. Martin Sandoval
(D-Chicago), who flirted with John McCain's Republican campaign not that long
ago, told reporters recently that colleagues had urged him to consider running.
It's doubtful that Sandoval would receive more than one or two votes, but this
gives you a good idea of how many people are holding back their votes from the
alleged "frontrunners" right now because they have their own dreams
of grandeur.
This is probably going to take a while. There is no
shortage of egos in the General Assembly, and the Senate Democratic caucus has
an overabundance. It will be some time before many are ready to set aside their
own fantasies and start actively engaging in the process.
Those egos were at least partly on display during a
recent, sometimes stormy meeting of the Senate Black Caucus.
In the end, all caucus members vowed to vote
together when it comes time to select a new Senate President, but it took a bit
of doing.
On its face, that decision might seem to benefit
Sen. James Clayborne (D-East St. Louis), who is supported at the moment by most
Downstate Democrats and several Black Caucus members. But there is quite a bit
of animosity in the Black Caucus towards Clayborne, so this thing isn't over
yet.
Some Black Caucus members refused to talk on or off
the record about the meeting, but enough spoke on the condition that they not
be identified to get a general idea of how things went. And it was apparently
pretty rough going for a while.
There are those in the caucus who are reaching out
to others in the hopes that a deal can be made which precludes Clayborne, but
the Metro East legislator's fundraising record and the fact that he has totally
locked up a significant number of Black Caucus votes, not to mention a likely
push to keep the Senate Presidency in the hands of an African-American, means
that he is in a strong position.
Some members have mentioned the possibility of a
deal with Sen. Don Harmon, a white legislator from Oak Park whose district is
half Republican and half African-American. Harmon also apparently has at least
some support from some suburban legislators. But there are also reports that at
least a couple of Black Caucus members have recently reached out to Sen. John
Cullerton, a white Chicagoan with decades of experience who has always been
considered one of the frontrunners for the top job. Harmon's original strategy
had him laying back until later rounds of voting and emerging as a compromise
candidate. Cullerton, one of the early frontrunners, is hoping to wrap things
up much sooner than that, as are other candidates, including Sen. Terry Link of
Lake County.
But, if the Black Caucus can somehow stay united,
and if Clayborne can tie down unanimous support of Downstate members (not
guaranteed by any means as of yet), he'll have 18 votes, which is pretty darned
close to a majority of the Democratic Caucus' 37 seats, unless, of course, the
Democrats gain or lose seats in the coming elections.
Something else to keep in mind is that Gov. Rod
Blagojevich will hold the gavel when the official Senate election is held next
year. Jim Thompson used that power many years ago to temporarily steer the
president's election to a Republican, even though the Democrats held the
majority. Whether our current
governor is above those sorts of shenanigans is anyone's guess at the moment,
but it probably has to be taken into account if a potential deadlock continues
into the fall and winter.
Rich Miller
also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and
thecapitolfaxblog.com.