After months of
indecision, former Republican Governor Jim Edgar finally announced Friday that
he wouldnÕt run for governor.
Edgar's months-long
decision-making process often strained the patience of many political insiders,
but it created an excitement that was too thick to cut with an ax. Edgar's
appearance last Monday in Naperville, at which he said almost nothing, burned
so white hot that it sucked almost all of the oxygen out of politics in this
state. Nobody on the inside seemed much interested in anything else.
And for good reason. It's
not every day that a former governor mulls another bid for his old office.
Illinois Republicans, viewed by some as almost dead after the George Ryan, Jack
Ryan, Alan Keyes and party chairmanship debacles, saw an Edgar candidacy as an
almost sure way back into power.
Republican leaders still
think that other candidates could win next year, mainly because of Governor Rod
BlagojevichÕs absolutely awful poll numbers and ongoing state and federal
investigations into his administration. But Edgar, they believe, would have had
long political coattails, which could have done everything from helping them
recruit better candidates to allowing them to pick up some downstate
legislative seats to staunching the very scary suburban hemorrhaging at the
state and local levels that is sapping their strength year after year.
Democrats, once supremely
confident of their future, are freaked out about Governor Rod Blagojevich's
disastrous poll numbers. Their paranoia increased as Edgar flirted with running
again. They're breathing a little easier now.
So, whatÕs next for the
Republicans?
EdgarÕs decision means
there are now no easy solutions for the Republicans. While they still have a
decent shot at the governorÕs mansion, they are as disorganized and divided as
theyÕve ever been.
What Gov. Blagojevich and
the Democrats need most is a chance to get people to stop thinking about
alleged corruption in the Blagojevich administration and the perception by
voters that he isnÕt up to the job, and get them to start thinking about
ideology.
The completely pro-life,
anti illegal immigrant, anti teacher tenure and God knows what else Jim
Oberweis, the dairy magnate who fumbled two previous statewide bids and is
running for governor this time around, would allow the Democrats to shore up
their depressed and embarrassed base and scare the pants off the moderate
independents. Campaigns are like conversations with the electorate. And
Oberweis, or another far-right primary winner, would allow the Democrats to
change the subject.
Oberweis has consistently
polled second behind GOP state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, so he hasn't been
considered a real threat by many pundits, but that could change.
It had been widely assumed
that Edgar would quickly endorse Topinka for governor if he didnÕt run. Topinka
is closest to Edgar on ideology of all the declared candidates and the two have
been political allies for years.
But when the time came to
make his announcement, Edgar endorsed no one.
It turns out that for the
previous week or so, Topinka started having second thoughts about running for
governor. The long wait for Edgar to make up his mind gave the treasurer time
to reflect on what she really wants to do, and she reportedly began to think
that a run for the state's top office might not be for her. In the end, Edgar
didn't want to endorse someone who might not be a candidate.
ItÕs possible as I write
this that Topinka could help try and recruit someone else into the governorÕs
race, but it will be impossible to find a "white knight" who compares
with Edgar. If and, more likely, when that effort fails, then Topinka may end
up in the governor's race after all.
Topinka wouldn't be as
easy for Blagojevich to demonize as someone like Oberweis. But she has been
around a long time, and has her share of baggage. Edgar would have been able to
raise much more money than Topinka and there's a real fear among her close
friends that Topinka could be overwhelmed by a massive Blagojevich spending
spree next fall - if she wins the primary.
Now that Edgar is out, the
other, lesser-known candidates will feel emboldened to attack the frontrunner
Topinka. All but one of those opponents (Ron Gidwitz being the exception) are
far to Topinka's right. Topinka will have to spend big bucks just to have a shot
at facing master fundraiser Rod Blagojevich. Money isn't everything, but it's
definitely an important thing.
Let the games begin.
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Rich Miller also publishes
Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be reached at
capitolfax.blogspot.com