A
new statewide poll shows that, if given the opportunity, a majority of
Illinoisans would vote to recall Gov. Rod Blagojevich. But don't get your hopes
up.
The
poll of 600 registered Illinois voters taken November 1st through the 3rd by
the Glengariff Group, found that 51.9 percent of registered voters said they
would vote to recall Blagojevich if Illinois had the ability to recall an
elected official. The state currently has no recall provision in its
Constitution, but the Chicago Tribune touched off a firestorm several days ago
with a Sunday editorial that broached the subject.
According
to the poll, a majority or a plurality of every demographic, including race,
region and party, said they would vote to recall Blagojevich. Even in Chicago,
the margin was 48.2 percent for Blagojevich's recall and 43.9 percent against.
And 46.7 percent of Democrats said they were for recalling Blagojevich if they
had the chance, while 45.4 percent said they wouldn't support it.
The
Glengariff Group poll also found that support for adding a recall provision to
the Constitution has risen by 7,5 percent since May of this year, when the
polling firm last asked the question. According to the poll, a whopping 65
percent of Illinoisans now favor adding recall to the Constitution, with
support rising in every region of the state.
The
survey showed a somewhat higher job approval rating for Blagojevich than two
recent polls, which had him in the high teens to mid twenties. The Glengariff
Group poll had the governor's approval rating at 31.5 percent, with 61.2
percent disapproval. That's still not good at all, of course, and 42 percent of
the state's registered voters strongly disapproved of the governor's
performance, which is downright awful.
All
recent polling has shown the governor's support is collapsing with
African-Americans, his most reliable base until lately. The Glengariff Group
poll showed that black voters gave the governor just a 38 percent approval
rating. That's down from an 81 percent approval in May.
Back
in May, 75 percent of Chicago voters approved of the governor's job
performance, but Glengariff's latest has that approval at 44 percent.
Also
in May, Glengariff Group's polling had Blagojevich with a 71 percent approval
rating among his fellow Democrats. That's down to just 42 percent now.
All
of these most recent numbers essentially track with every other poll taken
since July.
Just
26.2 percent of Illinoisans believe the state is on the right track, while 65
percent say it's on the wrong track. That's a 13 percent increase in
Glengariff's "wrong track" numbers since May.
The
governor's office says that they're not worried about those numbers. All
politicians are unpopular these days, is the standard response.
Not
so.
I
took a look at SurveyUSA's website last week. The polling company does a
fantastic job of tracking approval ratings for statewide officials all over the
country.
Alabama's
governor had a job approval rating of 63 percent last month. California Gov.
Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has had some ups and downs during his tenure, was at
53 percent approval. Kansas' governor was at 69 percent.
There
are some exceptions. Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle's approval rating was in the
negatives - 41 percent approval with 53 percent disapproval. Missouri's
governor has a 42 percent approval rating while 52 percent disapprove.
Still,
I couldn't find any governor, anywhere with numbers worse than Blagojevich's.
Not even Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who has been beset by corruption
allegations and just got pounded in that state's general election by his
Democratic rival. According to SurveyUSA, Fletcher's job approval rating last
month was 36 percent, with his disapproval at 60 percent.
The
only politicians with worse numbers than Blagojevich's are President George W.
Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. That's not exactly comforting news.
But
- and this is a big "but" - any amendment to the Illinois
Constitution implementing recall would have to either be passed by both
chambers of the General Assembly or enacted through a Constitutional
convention, which voters will have a say on next November.
It's
more than doubtful that the state House and Senate would voluntarily open up
that can of worms. Any convention, if it happens, wouldn't take place until
2009 at the earliest, and even then a recall provision isn't guaranteed.
In
other words, you might want to recall him, but you're almost undoubtedly stuck
with Rod Blagojevich as your governor through the end of his term in January of
2011.
I
feel your pain.
-30-
Rich
Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be
reached at capitolfax.blogspot.com.