Last Tuesday's election
gave Illinois Senate President Emil Jones more bragging rights than anyone else
at the Statehouse.
Jones' Democrats picked up
five seats on Tuesday, giving them one more than the minimum needed for a
veto-proof majority. Jones' 37 seats compares to just 22 for the Senate
Republicans.
To say that the Senate
Republicans are now irrelevant for at least the next two years would be putting
it mildly. The Senate Republicans won't be able to stop anything, including
bills for new state construction bond programs which require a minimum of 36
votes.
The GOP focus will likely
turn to the House Republicans, who could use their continued ability to hold up
a bond bill as a major bargaining chip. For the past two years, the Republicans
tried to "starve" the Democrats and Gov. Rod Blagojevich politically
by withholding votes from a construction bond bill. No projects, no press
releases, no glowing news stories means the playing field was more level, went
the logic. That obviously didn't work. Blagojevich won by nine points, the
House Democrats appear to have picked up one seat and the Democrats swept the
state. A capital bill now looks likely.
While the House
Republicans contemplate their future role, the finger pointing has already
begun amongst the Senate Republicans. Supporters of Senate GOP Leader Frank
Watson point to the Democratic wave and the weakest statewide Republican ticket
in memory as a big reason for their heavy losses last week.
But there is another side.
Watson ousted longtime Republicans state Sen. Adeline Geo-Karis in the GOP
primary because he worried she would lose the general election. That backfired
badly when Geo got her revenge by endorsing the Democratic candidate, who won.
Watson spent hundreds of
thousands of dollars in a futile attempt to defeat Democratic state Sen. Deanna
Demuzio, the widow of a longtime Democratic state Senator. Turns out, the
Demuzio name is still platinum in her southern Illinois district and Watson's
GOP candidate was a total unknown from the wrong end of the district. Demuzio
won with just under 60 percent of the vote.
Watson also spent hundreds
of thousands to take out a Peoria Democratic candidate who had been hand picked
by retiring state Sen. George Shadid, a local icon. Shadid's endorsement of
Dave Koehler was worth its weight in gold and Koehler took almost 58 percent.
The Senate GOP leader's
failure to see Democratic surges in districts like a supposedly "sure
thing" contest in Will and Kane counties pitting Republican Terri Ann
Wintermute against Democrat Linda Holmes has shaken some Republicans to the
core.
Watson's decision to move
his female candidates rightward on abortion and stem cell research and attack
all their Democratic opponents for opposing parental notification is also up
for debate. Everything else, from the quality of their TV ads and their
candidate recruitment to their message in general is fair game now.
Still, Watson took a shot
and it didn't work. His candidates were outclassed by one of the most
extraordinary crop of Democratic hopefuls I've ever seen fielded at any one
time, the Democrats had their most successful election since Watergate, mega
rock star Barack Obama personally campaigned or appeared in direct mail for all
the Senate Democratic hopefuls and badabing, badaboom, the Republicans are left
with 22 seats and they're now more irrelevant than an electric blanket in
Baghdad. The joke going around last week was that Watson's punishment for
losing so many races ought to be another two years as minority leader.
Barring something extreme
like a gubernatorial indictment (and the Republicans really ought to stop
basing their political hopes on this "event"), 2008 could be yet
another good Democratic year as the presidential election rolls through a
solidly "Blue" state. So something does have to change, even if
Watson survives a possible coup attempt.
Former House Republican
Leader Lee Daniels went from being on the victim end of a veto-proof majority
in 1990 to the Speaker's podium in four years. But Daniels had a
Republican-drawn legislative district map and the '94 national GOP landslide to
thank - and he still lost the majority two years later.
The Senate Republicans are
dealing with a Democratic-drawn map, a dysfunctional, divided and unpopular
Republican Party and a bunch of new Democratic freshmen who are known for
innovation and hard work. It doesn't take much to figure out that the future is
not all that bright for the Senate Repubs right now, no matter who is in
charge.
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Rich Miller also publishes
Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and thecapitolfaxblog.com