Republican gubernatorial
candidate Judy Baar Topinka is somewhere in the middle on abortion issues. Because
of that, both extremes hate her.
Last week, Planned
Parenthood and the pro-choice group Personal PAC held a press conference to
urge reporters to find out whether Topinka is pro-choice or not. The groups
claim she has "flip-flopped" all over the issue, a battle cry that
the pro-life side will almost surely take up as its own.
To help prove their point
that she is a flip-flopper, the groups released votes on a bill from 1981.
Back then, Topinka was in
the Legislature and a parental consent bill was introduced. Topinka voted with
Planned Parenthood on one amendment, voted with the pro-life side on a
different amendment and then voted "Present" on the bill itself.
Those votes were described in a way that made it look like she voted on all sides
of the legislation, when, in reality, she was voting on individual issues.
That sort of stuff happens
all the time in Springfield, of course. But it shows what sort of challenges
lie ahead for Topinka and how far the groups will go in attacking her. Neither
side, both highly organized, experienced and well-funded, will run to her
defense on abortion when one side attacks. According to Planned Parenthood,
Topinka voted "against reproductive choice" 79 percent of the time.
Topinka supports the landmark Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision, however. In
other words, she's far too pro-life for the choicers and too pro-choice for the
right-to-lifers.
Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar
and Rod Blagojevich are all very pro-choice. Edgar was even endorsed by the
National Abortion Rights Action League when he ran for governor the first time.
George Ryan had it both ways because his legislative record was pro-life enough
for the pro-lifers and much more "reasonable" to the pro-choicers
than his hardcore pro-life Democratic opponent Glenn Poshard. If Topinka makes
it out of the primary, she'll be in uncharted waters. We haven't had a truly
middle-ground candidate on this issue in a long time.
Making it out of the
primary, of course, is the first task at hand. And that pro-choice press
conference was a sign of interesting times ahead.
Until this week, the
governor and his campaign adamantly refused to comment about any attacks from
announced Republican gubernatorial candidates.
And then Judy Baar Topinka
stepped into the race.
A Blagojevich campaign
spokesperson held an impromptu press conference shortly after Topinka's formal
announcement to attack Topinka for being part of the deficit problem that
Blagojevich inherited from George Ryan. The spokesman ignored questions about
the governor's ethics, and tried to keep the focus on the budget.
That unusual press
conference followed the pro-choice press conference the previous day.
Then, the governor himself
got into the action, telling Chicago's ABC-7 television news that Topinka was part
of the reason for the deficit he inherited.
I think we'll see more of
this in the coming weeks for two reasons. The f irst is obvious. Blagojevich
and everyone else figures that Topinka is his most likely opponent and they're
going to respond right away to any attacks, before they have a chance to sink
in with voters.
The second is less
obvious, but it's something I've been talking about with people for many
months. Columnist Russ Stewart beat me to the punch the other day with the same
sort of analysis. The idea may be to try to weaken Topinka enough in the
primary that she actually loses and Blagojevich ends up with a hard-right
opponent, which would allow him to change the subject from corruption and
competence to ideology.
Former Democratic Governor
Gray Davis did this well in California - spending millions in the GOP primary
and helping an ultra-conservative Republican defeat a moderate candidate, then
winning in November.
I wouldn't rule out the
chance that at least one and maybe more of the governor's interest group allies
could run ad campaigns attacking Topinka before primary day, with the governor
weighing in occasionally himself.
And even if Topinka
doesn't lose the primary, a nasty spring proxy attack would help soften her up
for the fall's general election, when the third-party attacks will almost surely
intensify. A similar strategy worked last year when groups like the Swift Boat
Veterans for Truth undermined Democratic presidential contender John Kerry in
key battleground states with their outrageous claims.
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Rich Miller also publishes
Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be reached at
capitolfax.blogspot.com.